Thursday, February 8, 2007

So where does camera technology go from here?

Ever wondered what the next steps will be in the great digital photography revolution? Hmm, me too. Here are my thoughts for developments in the next 5 years ...

1) Individually profiled cameras and lenses. Surely in this day and age, at least for upper echelon DSLRs, it's possible during manufacture and test to take an individual profile, tied to the serial number, that accurately reflects the specific characteristics of a camera or lens? Let Photoshop go on line with the serial numbers of your collection and download the specific measured profiles for each and incorporate those into unique, custom-made adjustments for sensor accuracy and lens distortion. Hell, incorporate the serial numbers in the EXIF data and make this seamless.

2) Full 16 bit processing end-to-end. Everything. Maybe even starting with 24 bits from the sensor and then going to 16 during RAW processing and staying at that level of fidelity right through to the print.

3) The "pixel wars" around sensor size will continue but focused more at the mid- to -high-end of the market (where there's more silicon real estate available and prices can justify the ongoing investments).

4) A new generation of "super lens" will have to emerge in order to keep pace with 3). I saw some pictures from a friend's Canon 5D and even with L glass it's clear were are hitting the end stops in this regards already. See also 1) and software lens correction technology!

5) jpeg largely goes away except perhaps for the bottom-end P&S cameras. Another standard will be needed for compressing the outputs of the larger sensor formats without introducing the artifacts jpeg compression does. RAW will continue but we'd all better get used to upgrading PC power, memory and storage to try and cope.

6) Straight-to-paper printing for laptop work. Think Polaroid - peel off a backing layer, lay paper on screen and pulse the display appropriately to expose. Instant printing of letters, pictures etc. without having to carry a printer.

(OK, that last one was a wish-list item and not a prediction but hey, it's my list, right?)

7) Fewer camera manufacturers than even we have today. Canon and Nikon will survive of course but there are still too many producers overall. Sad, but inevitable.

8) Wireless everywhere. Camera to storage, PC to printer, picture viewing across the web etc. No surprises here but just remember we are only beginning the process on this one.

9) We'll see a resurgence of "analogue" reproduction using, much in the same way as happened after a few years of CDs and digitised music then all of a sudden expensive, high-end turntables came back to life. In that shift even LP manufacturing came back to life after a while and there's now a healthy, albeit niche, analogue reproduction business out there.

10) Ultimately, though, talent and/or skill will prevail. At the end of the day it is of course the image that matters, not the medium. Anyone know what size, type or shape of chisel Michaelangelo used to sculpt David? Nope, neither do I, and few of us care!

Anyone have other ideas?

No comments: