The Iron Lady

I was 21 years old when Margaret Thatcher became prime minister, 33 when she resigned. It was clear to all even then that Britain was changing beyond recognition. Thatcher's government accelerated a process of dramatic reinvention the country had been going through since the end of the second world war, largely through a protracted series of battles fought simultaneously on many fronts, from organised labour to European integration and even the Argentine junta on the seas of the South Atlantic.  Thatcher's legacy is clearly visible today and, love her or loathe her (because she pretty much polarised people into one camp or the other) no one can really question  her pivotal role in changing the course Britain was on in the nineteen seventies.  However, it's not clear to me that this film manages to capture any of that, except perhaps in en passant fashion, which is a great shame because that's a story that still needs to be told.

The Thatcher we see here is old, confused and delusional.  Dementia consumes her to the point where she's plagued by the ghost of Dennis, her two-decades-dead husband, continually popping up with that fifties-era "buck up old girl, everything will turn out all right" spirit anyone over 40 will recognise.  Yup, the stuff of Shakespeare, but unfortunately without a script to match.  Instead, her current condition seems to be not much more than a vehicle through which to cover standard bio-pic fare about her upbringing in Grantham as a grocer's daughter, her hard-fought climb through the ranks of the conservative party and culminating with her becoming what no one - even Thatcher herself - thought was possible: Britain's first woman prime minister.  Don't get me wrong, the historical stuff is done well (even if there is quite some licence taken in places) and likely much more interesting to audiences outside of the UK or those who grew up after she was ousted than it was for me. And to be fair, Streep's performance in this film really is extremely good, to the point where most viewers would need to see the two Thatcher's, real and acted, side-by-side in order to tell the difference. However, I was hoping for something more focused, more engaging, more intellectual if you will; something that captured the sweeping change my generation went through with Thatcher as she literally reshaped the socio-political landscape.  What we actually got in this film seemed more a commentary on just how much dementia sucks, and we really don't need a statesman laid low as the focal point in order to understand that problem. (Go and see instead the Iris Murdoch bio-pic, also, interestingly, with Jim Broadbent in the role of long-suffering partner, for a picture of the misery and loss Alzheimer's brings with it.)

Bio-pics can work, but you have to come away with a real understanding of what made the subject tick, what drove them, and perhaps more importantly what they lost or gave up along the way.  The use of her on-going dementia as a framework around which this film is built gets in the way of that.  Her present state blunts a critical examination of the radicalism her premiership was suffused with, implying instead that she was just a tough old bird who had to become more manly than the men around her in order to succeed.

What I'd like to see instead would be a film that explores the end game of her reign as leader of the conservative party, the point where she was no longer seen as an asset by the Tory grandees but rather as a liability.  Now that would indeed be a tragedy worth of WS's finest penmanship!  Politics at its worst - that story's got it all!

(Professionals have of course written much more perceptive reviews of this film than I, and so I urge you to check out at least this one in the Guardian because it really does a much better job of it than I have.  And don't get me wrong, it's a film that's definitely worth seeing, despite the above!)

Apple: So What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

The last post looked at a myriad of things that Apple seems to be doing right, and I have to say that even then it was only a partial list. For example, iCloud is clearly a major new initiative that promises plenty of innovation ahead, and we've all seen published excerpts from the Steve Jobs biography that talk about how he's finally "cracked the code" on Apple TV. Even so, Apple will stumble at some point, it's just inevitable. No technology-based business that I can think of, has ever been able to sustain the sort of tear Apple is on for more than a couple of decades at most, and it's now just over ten years since the iPod first hit the market & fifteen years since Jobs returned via the purchase of NeXT.

So what could possibly go wrong? Well, here are just a few potential maggots I can think of that could invade Apple's core businesses:

Forcing competition into being: as has been argued elsewhere, Apple's five year exclusive deal with AT&T for the first iPhone models basically brought into being the only real competitive threat Apple has in that space today: Android. The very success that Apple saw forced Verizon to respond in kind when AT&T started leaching away customers in their droves; Google's Android was a tailor-made, open-source spoiler, and Verizon gave them a guaranteed market. Between them and the likes of HTC and Samsung, Android rapidly developed into a real competitor, to the point where device shipments for the two platforms are running neck-and-neck. And because Apple is now so broad in its product line offerings, you can see similar alliances popping up elsewhere with perhaps the Microsoft/Nokia pairing being the one most likely to bring new arms to bear in this war. (It's therefore interesting to note that Microsoft is reputedly paying an initial $250 million to get Nokia moving to Windows 7, and that's real money, even in Silicon Valley.)

As Apple looks to conquer new markets, the temptation must be great to do the same sort of thing again. After all, financially it did work extremely well, allowing Apple to focus on getting the iPhone right before moving-on to support other wireless technologies. So you could imagine, for example, an exclusive deal with Sony for iTV or perhaps Ford for the iCar entertainment system, as a way of getting deeply immersed in those spaces before allowing others to join the party. OK, perhaps we are out in the weeds somewhat, but you get the point. The risk with exclusive deals is either that they go sour at a point where divorce is difficult or, when they go well, they cause stronger alliances to emerge elsewhere in order to compete effectively.

Ticking-off the DoJ: so far, Apple has sat resolutely-planted on top of its cash mountain, refusing to spend large on major acquisitions of the sort an Oracle or HP would see as almost routine.  However, as that pile of money fast approaches $100 billion there are some signs emerging that this could change.  But, as the old maps never used to say, "here there be dragons".  Apple is now of a size, and has achieved such dominance in many of its chosen markets, that there will be those who are just itching for an excuse to break it up, and there's nothing like a big, headline-grabbing acquisition to give them exactly what they are looking for by way of an excuse to probe into every dark corner of what is surely one of the world's most secretive companies.  Indeed, my take is that Apple must have already passed on a bunch of opportunities for just this reason and so will be extremely careful if and when a larger play is made, that they think they can manage the vagaries of the process, both in the USA and of course in Europe, where Apple has already had run-ins before.

The patent war goes nuclear: oh boy. The fragile peace that's existed in the arcane world of technology patents, held in place for many a long year by a gentleman's agreement amongst companies not to sue the bejesus out of each other, is rapidly breaking down. The temptation became just too great, the prize too rich. To date, disputes have been settled (either in or out of court), money has changed hands and every one's life has continued much as before; "it's just business", as the Mafioso would say. However, just as with the national nuclear deterrents, it all relies upon the concept of mutually assured destruction. No tech company yet feels strong enough to wage all out war on their foes because to date all the major players have had enough patents in their armoury to mount a pretty devastating counter offensive if they so choose.  Now, though, with all the M&A activity going on specifically in order to round up more patent ammunition (Motorola, anyone?), it's quite possible that someone, somewhere might be able to collect enough of an arsenal to feel safe in pushing the big, red button, unleashing a legal Armageddon from which in practice few could could emerge unscathed.

Market saturation: an obvious one, perhaps, but a real problem nevertheless.  I mean, just how many iPods does anyone need?  (I have three of differing generations but only regularly use one of them, and feel no real compulsion to upgrade the older ones any time soon.)  Ditto iPhones Macbooks, etc.  At some point, the pace of innovation just isn't high enough to keep you reaching for your credit card with every new announcement out of Cupertino.

Competing with partners: perhaps as a by-product of a larger acquisition, or just because, quarter-by-quarter, the machine gets hungrier and hungrier but still needs feeding, Apple may find itself competing with those who today view themselves as partners.  The music industry; all of Apple's extensive supply chain providers; cell phone carriers; Hollywood; all could fall neatly into that category.  Depending upon the size of the perceived threat, the magnitude of the response could be sufficient to trigger some major realignments in the industry.  Suppose, for example, Apple bought Warner Brothers.  Would other labels still license their content to Apple, or would they decide instead to run the risk of losing sales by fracturing the markets, giving rights to the likes of Microsoft, Samsung or someone else, any of whom could be seen as much less of a threat?

Someone out-innovates them: for sure unlikely, at least in the near term, but not impossible.  For example, you can easily argue that Netflix is fast becoming to video downloading what iTunes was to music retailing (and if you wanted an interesting candidate as to where Apple might spend some of it's cash, here's a good place to start your idle speculation from, especially with their recent precipitous drop in stock price!)  Similarly, Apple's position in the enterprise, while growing rapidly now thanks to the iPad, is still relatively weak (though, alas, so too  are many of the other players who are targeting major corporations, and in the case of RIM, seemingly getting weaker with each passing quarter.)  In short, the tech world is still evolving rapidly and even Apple has its limits.  Other pretenders to their crown will come along, and one of them may just be quick enough or savvy enough to cause a major upset.

Again, all of the above is hardly an extensive analysis, and I couldn't do more than guess at this point which, if any, of the threats discussed are the most pressing.  All you can say for certain is that, at some point, Apple will miss. When it does it will be a big shock to the system (and to the markets) and a lot of people will come out of the woodwork saying "I told you so" and acting all smug and righteous.  Regardless of how or when all this plays out, I'll nevertheless do what I can to resist the urge to be one of them because, and despite all of the above, I think we all want them to continue to do what they do best: give us new stuff to play with that's fun, amazing and actually, at times, even useful.  And that really is a very difficult thing to do, to do well, and to do well enough in order to dominate multiple markets.

Simply Stunning

Early-on in the silicon revolution, Intel recognized that the way to build a world-beating company was to drive semiconductors to being seen as a basic domestic commodity, in the much same way as soap powder or cornflakes already were.  And it's hard to argue that they didn't succeed, at least given just how many microprocessors we are surrounded by on a daily basis.  However, with their latest set of results, Apple is now showing that it's possible to take another route to that same goal, that of affordable aspiration.

Apple just posted 1Q12 revenues in excess of $46 billion, a sales performance that yielded a profit of $13 billion.  The jaw-dropping numbers continue: 15 million iPads, 37 million iPhones, 5 million Macs. In three months. Wow.

The highly-tuned Apple ethos of making sleek, highly-capable devices that can delight users, regardless of their level of technical expertise, has changed how the world thinks about technology, and also what we now expect from all other manufacturers.  Time and again, Apple produces things we don't even know we want, but do so in such a way as to ensure that overnight the latest, greatest device somehow becomes a must-have item, rapidly becoming as close to a commodity purchase as it's possible to get, at least as far as personal discretionary spending goes.

Thanks to their canny pricing practices, we can all aspire to being connected with what the Apple brand represents: cutting edge technology married with leading edge design, and all that a price that's just within reach.  It's cool, chic, and, almost at the level of a bonus feature; hell, it's actually useful, too, and hence very easy to justify buying.  "Sure, it might be a bit of an indulgence, but go ahead.  You deserve it, and anyway it will make [insert favourite task here] easier", says the voice inside your head.  Of course, we don't need it at all, but so what?  This is all about wanting, about temptation, and you know how good we humans are at resisting that particular urge. 

There is no better place to be in terms of selling stuff.  Sure, I could aspire to owning a Ferrari, but I'm never going to be able to afford one, at least not the one I'd want.  However, the next Macbook refresh is only months away and my personal laptop is 5 years old now, so I'm already starting to think about what the specifications might look like, especially if the rumoured high-resolution displays do indeed show up.  And judging by their last quarter results, I'm not alone in playing that game.

In their own way, Apple has also achieved high-tech nirvana with their business model: they are the market leader, can command premium prices, and get to enjoy the lowest supply-chain costs in the business.  In every single segment in which they participate, they are the leaders; they lead financially, they lead in branding and image, they lead in innovation.

Today, they have (again) overtaken Exxon in terms of market capitalization, regaining top-dog status as the most valuable U.S. company.  With their momentum showing little signs of slowing, it's a position they look likely to hold for quite some time yet to come.

Apple:every home should  have one, and pretty soon they probably will.

iTunes can't access the music store or you can't sync your iPad?

Yup, been suffering from both of those for quite some time now, along with occasional Windows 7 networking issues (such as an inability to connect to certain sites.)  I tried deleting and reinstalling all Apple software, but to no avail.  The only reason I headed down that path at all because I was finding the mobile sync process from Apple was hogging tons of CPU time and some posters on the Apple support forum recommended the delete/reinstall as being the solution.  Perhaps for them, but not for me!

However, I did eventually find the fix as posted by "rodfromnewark" (who is rightly hailed as a hero on the discussion thread!):

For PC users, before reinstalling, try this:

Start -> Programs -> Accessories -> (Right Click On Command Prompt) -> Run as Administrator
(This gives you the DOS command shell)

then type in:

netsh winsock reset

hit enter, restart PC, open iTunes. Hopefully fixed.

Forcing a winsock reset not only cleared up my iTunes issues but also seems to have sorted the other random networking problems too!  My laptop is once again useful for something other than acting as a winter warmer for my legs, which is nice.
Discussion link is : https://discussions.apple.com/thread/3223139?start=0&tstart=0

Yosemite In Winter

I've been to Yosemite multiple times since moving here, but never before in the winter.  Last weekend, we fixed that!  However, rather than just showing up and driving around, S and I joined a photo-workshop run by the Aperture Academy in order to have a focal point for the trip (pun intended!)

With our usual consummate skill, we chose the very weekend on which California weather decided to drop the snow levels below 500 feet here in the Santa Cruz mountains, meaning that we'd be gone when the house would be a foot deep in the white stuff.  Fortunately, the forecast turned out to be a bit overblown and only a light dusting actually fell, which was a relief.  However, that was not the case in the Sierras where basically it snowed all day Thursday and most of Friday, the day we drove up to El Portal to join the group.

Fortunately, it was fine driving into El Portal along Highway 140 and no chains were required, largely just because you never get much above 2,500 feet along the way so the road tends to be open when others are not.  However, in the park itself (the Valley is another two thousand feet above that level) snow was falling fast - which was good!

Heading out early on Saturday revealed grey skies and snowy scenes.  Things cleared up progressively as the day went along and by Sunday morning it was clear blue and no cloud cover, but with plenty of the pretty white stuff

The above shot was taken around sunset on Saturday when, alas, El Capitan resolutely refused to clear up despite all the rest of the clouds hanging around Yosemite Valley melting away.  Bummer, because it sort of leaves the scene feeling a bit unbalanced in that what you want as a focus for the view was basically hidden.  Still, a classic winter view nonetheless.

Sunday was clear and cold .... and somewhat curtailed.  S took a nasty fall outside of the small church in Yosemite, spraining her ankle in the process.  Therefore, we packed up early and headed back home (she couldn't put weight on that leg at all, something that makes getting out and taking photos really hard!)

Would definitely recommend the Aperture Academy workshop series, and indeed this was the second one we have done with them (with another booked for May).  They have great instructors who are happy to help however you want them to, and having a large bus in which they transport everyone together makes the whole logistical problem of how to get the entire group from one location to the next a real breeze, especially in places like Yosemite.  Highly recommended - and thanks, guys, for a great trip!

Happy New Year!

Capitola Pier, November 2010

Merry Christmas, 2010

Just wanted to wish everyone a merry Christmas and happy new year!  Here's a shot from May of this year in Yosemite (actually it was in Wawona, to be precise) of a fast-flowing melt-water river.  Buried in there is a lone, sparse shrub that's somehow still standing despite the pressure of countless gallons of water flowing past each and every minute.  May we all be able to call upon such vast reserves of strength and perseverance, eh?  Still, it obviously can pay off because the two large trees on the right were also sticking up through the torrent!

Here's to a wonderful 2011 for all of us!

Yoesmite - Winter Trip

The above was taken the last time we were in Yosemite in late spring 2010, following one of the wettest (and hence, snowiest!) winters for years.  However, we are still seeing quite a strong spell of wet weather in the Bay Area so snow is building fast in the Sierras.  Anyway, long story short, we are off again to stay in Yosemite once again but in winter this time.  Off in late February for a few days, weather permitting of course!

Clearing Storm - A Timelapse

Thought I'd post a rough version of a timelapse film I did over the weekend. It shows the storm we had clearing out of the area, turning the weather from very wet with low clouds to showery, blustery and clearing. I thought it would be interesting to see the clouds and fog in the valley behind our house "boiling" away as that weather front passes through the area and clearing sets in behind it, and I think I was right. It's worth watching several times to see the different areas - sky, valley, distant hills, etc. - all changing over what was roughly an hour or so.

For those interested, this was done by setting up my DSLR to take one frame every three seconds, importing all the pictures to my desktop PC running Adobe Lightroom, and then outputting (also from Lightroom) at 24 fps, 720p, into mp4 format.

I'll add some titles and a soundtrack, plus some zooms as well, to it once I find a spare cycle or two. Meanwhile ... enjoy the rough-cut!

(Stop press ... for some reason the original video wouldn't post so here's one I did earlier. Similar situation so you wil get the idea! I think the more recent one might have been a bit too long for Blogger.)

Water Gate (No, Not That One)

As mentioned, I've been stopping off at various beaches between Santa Cruz and Monterey over the past few months, partly to take some photographs but partly just to learn more about what's available along the coastline within an hour's drive from home. One such stop, in Moss Landing, yielded the photograph shown above.  It looks like the remains of some sort of jetty, but apart from the two uprights shown & a crumbling bit of concrete at the shoreline, it's hard to figure out what it originally looked like when whole.  It's also hard to determine exactly why it was there (it's actually located outside of the nearby harbour, directly facing the Pacific) though likely it served the fishing - or perhaps even whaling - industry before the more formal harbour complex was built.

I'll plan on going back there for another go at this view because I'd like to get the horizon lower than I was able to do this time around.  It was close to high tide so I had to stand up the beach, looking down somewhat towards the pilings themselves. And for those interested in such things, it was a 59 second exposure.