Monday, April 21, 2008

The Smart Money's On Obama

University of Iowa Electronic Exchange, 21 April 08

Although placing bets on the outcome of the Democratic nomination race is basically illegal here, there are nevertheless ways in which punters can have a small flutter if the fancy so takes them. However, it's not in 'Vegas nor even offshore that I speak of, but Iowa.

I dimly remember news stories about the University of Iowa's electronic exchange from the mid 90s. Basically, it's an academic experiment to see how open markets do at predicting things, in this case election results, and this whole topic is now finding favour once again thanks to the recent publication of "The Wisdom Of Crowds".

On the eve of the Pennsylvania primary let's take a look (above) at how Obama and Clinton match up. Pretty conclusively, Obama is the top dog with a price of 75 cents on the dollar vs. Hilary's 21 cents (the remaining 4 cents are therefore on some unspecified A.N. Other getting the nod).

The overall race? The Democrats are keeping a small lead over the Republicans, averaging out in the 5+ percentage points range.

Not clear how accurate these predictions are at this stage but you have to conclude that Obama really is where the smart money is going.

No comments: